On December 29, 2025, the School of Public Finance organized a seminar entitled “Drivers of Vietnam’s Double-Digit Growth Ambition: A Comparative Study with China and ASEAN-3 using the Growth Accounting Method”, presented by doctoral researcher Nguyen Quang Binh. The seminar attracted the participation of lecturers, postgraduate students, and doctoral researchers of the School of Public Finance, creating a rigorous and in-depth academic forum to discuss Vietnam’s economic growth drivers in the coming period.
The presentation focused on assessing the feasibility of Vietnam’s double-digit GDP growth target for the 2026–2030 period using the Growth Accounting method, based on the Cobb–Douglas production function and long-term data from the Penn World Table. The study indicated that Vietnam’s economic growth in recent years has primarily relied on capital accumulation and labor expansion, while the contribution of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has remained limited and relatively unstable.
Through comparisons with the growth models of China, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia, the presentation highlighted the risks associated with a capital-intensive growth model, as reflected in the rising ICOR and potential macroeconomic instability. On this basis, the study asserted that in order to achieve high and sustainable growth, Vietnam needs to undertake a structural shift, in which TFP must become the leading driver, accounting for a larger share of overall economic growth.
The seminar generated important policy implications, particularly the need to improve institutional quality, develop human capital, and shift investment priorities from scale expansion toward enhanced efficiency and productivity. Through active academic exchanges, the seminar helped clarify the challenges and necessary conditions for Vietnam to realize its high-growth ambitions in the new context, while reaffirming the role of scientific research in supporting economic policy formulation.
