Ho Chi Minh City, September 26, 2022 – On the afternoon of September 26, 2022 (Monday), the School of Public Finance organized a scientific seminar on the topic: “Geopolitical Risks.” The event featured a presentation by Dr. Pham Thai Binh.
The seminar was conducted in an offline format and garnered significant interest and shared insights from faculty members of the School of Public Finance as well as a diverse range of invited guests.
This paper assesses the impact of geopolitical risks (GPR) on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for a group of 18 emerging economies during the period 1985-2019. Based on Granger causality panel data tests, the study indicates that the trajectories of these variables cannot be ignored in explaining each other. To account for cross-equation influences, we estimate seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models and find a significant and robust negative impact of GPR on both TFP and FDI. Counterfactual simulations provide approximate quantitative estimates of the impact of GPR during the 2015–2019 period, showing a significant impact on TFP growth but a small one on FDI. For emerging economies to consolidate their economic progress, geopolitical stability is essential.
